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Kelly Criterion Betting System

Kelly Criterion betting system was developed in 1956 by John L. Kelly. Kelly´s theory is designed to maximize the growth of your bank roll (e.g. a betting fund) over the long term by determining the optimal stake on a bet. It requires that your percentage-estimations are better than the bookmakers estimations. In case of that, Kelly Criterion Betting System will tell you the optimal amount of your fund to bet:

Kelly Criterion Betting System was John L Kelly theory

Kelly Criterion Formula
(odds x winning chance - 1) / (odds - 1)

Betting fund: $1000
Betting odds: 2.85
Winning chance: 30% (your personal winning chance over time, mine is 30% in this case)

Result:  (2.85 x 0.30 - 1) / (2.85 - 1) = 0.054

Kelly Criterion Formula For 1x2 Football Betting:

((odds+1) x winning chance - 1) / ((odds+1)- 1)

Example Of Kelly Criterion betting system for 1x2 football betting

Betting fund: $1000
Betting odds: 2.85
Winning chance: 0.30 (30% derived from bookie profit indicator)
Result:  (
(2.85+1) x 0.30 - 1) / ((2.85+1)-1) = 0.054

This means that you should bet 5.4% % of your fund = $54.00

* Please take note that this system can be aggressive if it detects value betting under high winning chance but you can always adjust the stake size according to your confident level.

Kelly Criterion Stake Calculator

Kelly Criterion Betting System Proven To Perform Better Than Any Other Betting Strategy In The Long Run

Although many punters use Kelly Criterion betting system but some think that it is too risky as it requires a lot of your percentage estimations. Even if you manage to find value bets, bets with an overrated value can cost you some money because of the stake derived from the betting formula is too high. You can use a fraction system such as divide the percentage with 2 to minimize your risk. Another possibility is to use Kelly criterion betting system to determine stake proportions to find out how much to bet on game 1 compared to game 2.

Kelly Criterion Betting System On Betting Stake

Kelly Criterion Betting System indicates you should bet 4% of your fund on game 1 and 2% of your fund on game 2. If you are going to place $100 on these two games, you should place 4/6 = 66.7 % = $67 on game 1 and 2/6 = 33.33% = $33 on game 2.
 

Kelly Criterion Betting Prediction

Based on the average betting odds of a given number of online sports bookies to determine the possible outcome of a match:

Daily Kelly Criterion Prediction

 

 

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