Last 6 Form Prediction is one of the most popular prediction methods in the UK and has been widely used by football punters around the world.
The idea of Last 6 Form Prediction is to compare the total points of two teams gained in the last 6 games to predict the winner of a game.
Beginner Guide To Read & Calculate Last 6 Form
W is Win = 3 points
D is draw = 1 point
L is lose = 0 point
If a team have are on 6 winning run, the last 6 form is WWWWWW and total 18 points. If a team are on 6 losing run, the last 6 form is LLLLLL and total 0 point. If a team won 3 games follow by 1 draw and 2 defeats, the last 6 form is WWWDLL and total 10 points.
Last 6 Form Prediction
By comparing the point different between two teams, the prediction of a game is based on the following:
Scenario 1: If the point different of two teams is 6 or above - the team with higher point win.
Scenario 2: If the point different of two teams is exactly 5 - home team win if it has higher point OR home team win or draw if it has lesser point.
Scenario 3: If the point different of two teams is between 2-4, the team with higher point win.
Scenario 4: If the point different of two teams is 1-0, open game.
Last 6 Form Prediction Statistic
A study on last 6 form prediction has been made and concluded that the hit rate is 56.7% for English Premier League where:
Scenario 1: Hit rate is 42.7%
Scenario 2: Hit rate is 70.6%
Scenario 3: Hit rate is 51.2%
Scenario 4: Hit rate is 77.5%
Conclusion of Last 6 Form Prediction Method
Last 6 Form Prediction is statistically workable and profitable if only the winning minus lose is equal to positive number.
The 4th scenario has the highest winning rate of 77.5% but due to the fact that it is an open game, we are unable to generate any profit by placing bets on three outcomes.
The 70.6% of scenario 3 is the key targeting prediction that is profitable according to the study.
Assuming the average betting odds is 1.80 for 100 bets with $100 stake and have won 71 bets (derived from 70.6%), it will generate $2,708.00.
Scenario 1 and 3 will not be profitable as the hit rate is too low.
Enhancement to Last 6 Games Results Prediction
The profitable scenario 3 can be further enhanced by applying the Kelly Criterion staking method where the stake varies according to the winning chance of a bet
Kelly Criterion Stake Calculator will recommend the optimum stake to bet on each game by maximizing the profit and minimizing the risk.